Connected Research

Union policy research in the 21st century

Treasury economic data

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The Treasury has just published its most recent economic forecasts from a series of City and non-City forecasters, containing 24 updated forecasts.

Newly updated forecasts now show forecasters’ views that the economy will shrink during 2009 by, at the median level, -3.7% within a range of -1.3% to -4.5%; for calendar year 2010, the median forecast is for slight growth of 0.3% within a range of -1.2% to 2.5%.

Turning to inflation, new forecasts show RPI in formal deflation for 2009 – a ‘growth’ in prices of -1.6% within a range of -3.3% to 1.0%; for 2010, forecasters believe inflation will return to the economy but at the moderate level of 2.4% within a range of 0.2% to 5.4%.

In his Budget speech, Chancellor Alistair Darling referred to a contraction in 2009 of 3.5%, with growth in 2010 of 1.25% (and 3.5% from 2011 onwards) so it would seem that he is in line with recent forecasts for 2009 but quite signficantly more optimistic about the speed of the recovery: essentially, he looks to be a ‘V’ man rather than an ‘L’, ‘U’ or ‘W’ one, or even a ‘square root’ or ‘hook’ man. Confused? Perhaps a little less so if you check out Deborah Hyde‘s guide to the alphabet spaghetti of economic forecasting.


Written by Calvin

15/05/2009 at 11:56 am

One Response

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  1. Not convinced that any of these ‘experts’ really have much credibility any more, given that none of them forecast the recession to any extent!


    17/05/2009 at 1:25 pm

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